Bitcoin whales hold off on major selling, but retail investors appear unwilling to wait for the real bull market gains to hit.
Bitcoin retail investors have sent 6,000 BTC to Binance this month — but whales are mostly waiting.
New data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant published on Jan. 31 shows that small-scale BTC holders are cashing out in 2025.
Bitcoin whales watch as small fry aim to sell
Bitcoin BTC$104,439 exchange inflows reveal that retail investors think the bull market is all but over, for now.
CryptoQuant reveals that retail entities have sent 6,000 BTC to Binance in January alone, worth around $625 million at current prices.
At the same time, whales — traditionally the “smart money” that attempts to stay ahead of the trend and can shape short-term BTC price action — are keeping sales to a minimum.
“We often hear about a contradiction in the behavior of investors categorized as whales and retail,” CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote in a “Quicktake” market update.
“This is exactly what is happening now when analyzing data from Binance in the short term.”
Whale inflows to Binance for January total around 1,000 BTC ($104 million), suggesting very modest profit-taking.
“This is a perfect example of the contrasting behaviors between whales and retail traders and it is often considered a better choice to follow whales rather than retail investors,” Darkfost added.
Accompanying charts also show a strengthening inflow trend among retail investors, with the opposite true of whales.
Analyst expects rally to BTC price “first cycle top”
Other retail data suggests that mainstream interest has “reset,” following an initial spike as BTC/USD passed all-time highs last year.
This comes in the form of Google Trends figures for the term “Bitcoin,” with analyst CryptoCon applying the relative strength index (RSI) volatility indicator to historical data.
“Using the RSI of Google Trends Data for Bitcoin searches, we can see when people start to get interested and use that to determine where we are in the cycle,” he said in an X post on Jan. 30.
CryptoCon identified five key phases of retail interest in Bitcoin each cycle, with this time around no different.
“As you might expect, interest starts to ramp up during major price rises. It seems that after enough increase people start to get bored, and interest drops just before major highs are put in,” he explained.
“We have just completed phase 3 which is the ATH move. The RSI has made a full reset, which means that the next phase will be underway soon, phase 4 (First Cycle Top).”
The post concluded that the current Bitcoin bull run has much space left to run before hitting a macro top.
As Cointelegraph reported, estimates of how high BTC/USD could end the current cycle vary significantly but frequently include $150,000 or more.
